The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said the calorie-based rate dropped to 37% in fiscal 2025, down 1 percentage point from the previous year. That result sits below the government’s 45% target for fiscal 2030.
Rice weakness drives the decline
The ministry said the latest figure was the lowest on record when tenths and hundredths are counted. The rate also touched 37% in fiscal 1993, 2018, and 2020. The decline came after four years at 38%, showing that Japan’s food balance has moved lower again.
Rice was the key drag. The self-sufficiency rate for rice fell to 95%, down 2 points from the previous year and its lowest level in 16 years. Higher rice prices reduced consumption of the domestic staple, while the share of imports rose. That matters because rice has long underpinned Japan’s calorie-based food supply.
The broader picture is mixed. Wheat stayed at 16%, and meat held at 53%. Seafood rose to 53%, while vegetables slipped to 77%. The changes show that Japan’s farm supply base remains uneven across categories.
Production value improved, but inflation did the work
The production-value-based self-sufficiency rate rose 2 points to 66%. Higher prices for rice and other domestic foods, including chicken eggs, lifted that measure. In other words, the value of domestic output improved even as calorie-based dependence on imports deepened.
That split matters for policy and markets. Japan has kept its food self-sufficiency target at 45% by fiscal 2030, yet the latest result moves it further from that goal. The ministry’s own regional data also underline the gap between rural and urban Japan. Hokkaido ranked first for the eighth year in a row at 227% on a calorie basis, while Tokyo stood at 0% and Osaka at 1%.
For investors, the message is practical. Persistent food inflation can alter consumer demand, squeeze processors, and keep pressure on policymakers to support farm economics. Meanwhile, the rise in the value-based measure shows how price strength can mask weak volume trends.
The next focus is whether rice prices ease enough to stabilise consumption. According to Kyodo News, investors should watch for any policy response that could change import demand, farm margins, and the outlook for Japan’s domestic food supply.
